We downgrade our full-year 2026 EBIT forecast by 10% due to the profit warning issued on 24 July. The company expects revenue of EUR 270-290m in 2026, while the new adjusted EBITA guidance is EUR 26-29m. The share price dropped 14% on the day of the profit warning, highlighting growing uncertainty. Incap's profitability has come under pressure in certain market segments, but the midpoint of the company's net sales guidance indicates 30% y/y growth for 2026. We believe that profitability challenges stem from EV chargers and older industrial customers. In addition, weakening component availability could raise input costs. Our new fair value range is EUR 10.6-12.9 (11.7-14.3) per share, based on our DCF analysis, backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's 2026E P/E and EV/EBIT combined are 44% below the peer group median, and the company will need to show a stronger track record on operational performance in order to lower the valuation discount to peers.
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