Market sentiment in the dry bulk shipping sector improved somewhat in Q2. In addition, higher fuel prices are not a major headwind for ESL Shipping, as Aspo is able to pass on fuel costs to its customers. However, fuel costs should increase once utilisation ratios weaken and vessels can no longer use ordinary triangle routing. A weak economic environment and poor business confidence might have been challenging for the Telko segment. At the group level, Aspo guides for EBITA of EUR >29.4m for 2026, which we believe it might reiterate. Major news would be a possible divestment or demerger of the ESL Shipping segment, possibly as early as this year. Our estimates still point to a fair value range of EUR 6.7-8.2, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Note, however, that the SOTP valuation is highly sensitive to a possible divestment price for ESL Shipping.
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