Atria expects EUR -7m annualised EBIT impact to its Finnish export business from ASF outbreak in Finland. The company assumes that exports to China and Japan will be discontinued while pork sales to South Korea will continue. Atria expects EUR 4-5m negative impact on 2026 adjusted EBIT but reiterates guidance for higher adjusted EBIT in 2026 (EUR 69.9m in 2025). The impact from ASF outbreak is higher than we had anticipated (low single million) while reiterated guidance point to better-than-anticipated operating performance when excluding Asia exports. We have modelled EUR 74m adjusted EBIT for 2026E. Looking into 2027E, we have anticipated EUR 78m adjusted EBIT (prior to the ASF, LSEG Data & Analytics consensus EUR 74m) and hence EUR 7m impact translates into ~9% impact. However, we believe the company can mitigate part of the impact and note that shares were down 7% last Friday when the first ASF case was published.
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