Tallinna Sadam: Lower investments could support dividend payments - Nordea
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Tallinna Sadam: Lower investments could support dividend payments - Nordea

Net sales in Q2 came in close to our expectations, but adjusted EBITDA was below our forecast. The adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 was 46% compared to our forecast of 47%. However, part of the cost increases were related to one-off items that do not burden H2 2026. Earnings growth is lacking for 2026E y/y, but property development projects and the new quay at Paldiski could offer growth for 2027E-28E. Investments are coming down and free cash flow yield could be 13% in 2027 compared to our forecast dividend yield of 6%. Our fair value range of EUR 1.4-1.7 is unchanged, based on a combination of our DCF model and a peer group comparison. The company's 2026E P/BV is 26% below the peer group's long-term median of 1.1x.

Net sales in Q2 came in close to our expectations, but adjusted EBITDA was below our forecast. The adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 was 46% compared to our forecast of 47%. However, part of the cost increases were related to one-off items that do not burden H2 2026. Earnings growth is lacking for 2026E y/y, but property development projects and the new quay at Paldiski could offer growth for 2027E-28E. Investments are coming down and free cash flow yield could be 13% in 2027 compared to our forecast dividend yield of 6%. Our fair value range of EUR 1.4-1.7 is unchanged, based on a combination of our DCF model and a peer group comparison. The company's 2026E P/BV is 26% below the peer group's long-term median of 1.1x.
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