AVTECH (Q3 Review): First new airline pushed into 2027; value just above bear - Redeye
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AVTECH (Q3 Review): First new airline pushed into 2027; value just above bear - Redeye

AVTECH's Q3 net sales of SEK10.3m were 4% below our SEK10.8m and down 16% y/y, because of the already announced partial LATAM loss. EBITDA of SEK4.3m was SEK1.0m above our estimate. The beat came from capitalised development and other income. ARR fell to SEK43.2m. AVTECH is in qualified discussions with about 40 airlines. The CEO now hopes for signings in Q4 but says "definitely beginning '27". We move our first new airline to H1 2027, cut 2027 net sales by 10% and lower our Base Case from SEK6.6 to SEK5.0, as sales growth slips and the larger organisation weighs on profit. AVTECH screens as cheap with a fair value of SEK5.0.

AVTECH's Q3 net sales of SEK10.3m were 4% below our SEK10.8m and down 16% y/y, because of the already announced partial LATAM loss. EBITDA of SEK4.3m was SEK1.0m above our estimate. The beat came from capitalised development and other income. ARR fell to SEK43.2m. AVTECH is in qualified discussions with about 40 airlines. The CEO now hopes for signings in Q4 but says "definitely beginning '27". We move our first new airline to H1 2027, cut 2027 net sales by 10% and lower our Base Case from SEK6.6 to SEK5.0, as sales growth slips and the larger organisation weighs on profit. AVTECH screens as cheap with a fair value of SEK5.0.
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