* 6% organic growth in Q3 (vs. ABGSCe 16%)... * ...affected by the timing of new contracts * 8% EBITDA margin, best to date; ‘26e-‘27e EV/GP of 8-5x
ANNONS
Growth affected by timing effects
Growth was lower than we expected, with sales of SEK 67m corresponding to organic growth of 6% y-o-y (ABGSCe 16%), mainly affected by the timing of recently published contracts. This also affected ARPPU, which came in at SEK 198 (SEK 179 in Q3'25), slightly down from SEK 201 in Q2'26, as revenue from new users is recognised over the contract period. The gross margin (less capitalised work) was a strong 25% (21% in Q3'25), likely reflecting a favourable mix with a lower share of partner revenue. EBITDA was SEK 5m (3m), the strongest quarter to date, with Sweden remaining a clear profit driver. We believe the sales miss is mainly a question of timing rather than demand, and we expect the revenue effect to land mainly in Q4 and into ‘27.
Profitability now on a better road
We cut ‘26e-‘28e sales by 1-2%, as we incorporate the Q3 miss and a slightly lower base of paying users, while we raise '26e EBITDA by 11% on the stronger gross margin. We expect most of the revenue from the users added late in Q3, together with Malmö (up to 50k users), to land in Q4, implying growth of 47% y-o-y in the quarter. With FTEs broadly unchanged at 46 (44) and paying users growing by ~120k y-o-y, we believe additional users should carry a high incremental margin, and we take comfort in the quarter as further evidence of the scalability of the model.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ‘26e-‘27e 8-5x EV/Gross profit (GP less capitalised work). It is important to remember that Skolon’s growth is lumpy because of contract timing, while the trend is much less volatile on a R12m basis. With larger customers on the platform, the UK ramp-up and early progress in Germany, we believe the earnings power is significant over a longer time horizon.
