NYAB: Changing markets but same winning model - ABG
* A flexible, asset-light model enabling rapid growth with limited risk * We raise '27e-'28e EBIT by 5-10% and see +29% growth F12m * FVR SEK 7.5-12.0 (6.0-9.0) after raised estimates and outlook
ANNONS
A flexible model driving high growth and margins
We think NYAB’s ability to sustain disciplined growth as investment priorities change remains overlooked. Demand across energy, transportation and industry evolves at different speeds, allowing NYAB to direct its project management expertise towards the most attractive opportunities. Its variable cost base and subcontracted execution reduce pressure to accept lower-margin work to keep employees and equipment occupied. Early customer involvement, collaboration contracts and limited fixed-price exposure (<30%) help manage scope and pricing risk. Recent contract wins demonstrate this flexibility, while the model helps explain NYAB’s historical sales CAGR of ~30% and margins above construction peers, closer to technical consultants.
Re-accelerating earnings growth; +29% y-o-y F12m
A record order book and ~15% growth in key customers’ combined expected capex in 2027 position NYAB for re-acceleration. It is also capitalising on emerging opportunities in data centres and defence, contributing both to growth and diversification. The backlog reached new highs in Q2 (+18% y-o-y) and we expect it will be up ~50% y-o-y in Q3 following record order intake. L12m earnings have grown +21% y-o-y while we now forecast purely organic F12m growth of +29%, including +28%/+31% y-o-y in Q3/Q4.
Share is up with earnings revisions (~30%) L3M
We raise '27e-'28e EBIT and net profit by 5-10% and 6-11%. We have therefore raised net profit by 26-32% since Q2. These upgrades and NYAB's proven ability to deliver strong results even at larger scale, and also as a listed company, prompt us to raise our fair value range to SEK 7.5-12.0 per share (6.0-9.0). The share is up ~30% L3M but is still trading at 9-8x EBITA on '27e-'28e, ~10-25% below construction peers, despite a better financial performance.
