Enersense's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, supported by very strong growth in Power, while profitability fell short of both our estimate and LSEG consensus. Comparable revenue increased by 14% y/y. However, adjusted EBITDA of EUR 5.5m was below our EUR 7.5m estimate, primarily due to low market activity in Estonia, the slower-than-expected ramp-up of the Aquatech project and weaker volumes in Connectivity. Enersense maintained its EUR 19-23m adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 and expects a strong Q4. The pipeline looks healthy, but the company needs a substantial earnings step-up in Q4 to reach its guidance range. Our long-term estimates are broadly unchanged, and our fair value range therefore remains at EUR 4.2-5.3, based on our DCF analysis and backed by a peer group comparison. The risk/reward looks favourable, although a further rerating should require evidence of margin recovery and improved cash conversion.
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