Q1e: Paper volumes are picking up, but so are pulp prices
We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of PLN 87m, down from PLN 98m in Q4'23. The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -11m from FX (paper prices flat), PLN +45m from better volumes, PLN -41m from higher pulp prices (NBSK +12%, BHKP + 25%, with 1m lag) and PLN -4m from higher chemical costs. Pulp EBIT will likely be PLN 40-50m better q-o-q, driven by higher pulp prices and volumes. Hence, we expect Q1 group EBIT of PLN 99m vs. PLN 67m in Q4'23. We expect Q2 Paper EBIT of PLN 70-80m, driven by higher pulp prices.
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