Arise delivered sales of SEK 88m in Q1’22, which was -6 compared to our forecast of SEK 94m. Group EBITDA came in at SEK 61m, 0% vs. ABGSCe at SEK 61m. Development and Solutions delivered an EBITDA of SEK 2m compared to ABGSCe at SEK 7m. Production: delivered 100 GWh (ABGSCe 86 GWh) with an average realized price of SEK 748/MWh (ABGSCe SEK 822/MWh). EBITDA was SEK 65m vs. ABGSCe SEK 59m. Net profit was SEK 37m, slightly below ABGSCe at SEK 39m.
Portfolio and outlook comments
The project portfolio was unchanged at >2.6GW, in line with our expectations. The Lebo project, consisting of 5 turbines combining for 33 MW, has been started, with Arise intending to own it throughout construction and decide at a later stage whether to keep it for own production, or divest it. The start of commercial operations is planned for Q1’24. The sale of the Kölvallen project (277 MW) is still planned for mid-year ’22. Ongoing construction projects are impacted by increased costs, but risks are to a large extent limited by contractual agreements, which is positive. All in all, we think estimates will remain relatively unchanged following the Q1 report.
Stock thoughts and conf call at 11.00 CET
The stock trades slightly below our value range of SEK 60-120 and think today’s report could help de-risk the ‘22e earnings. There is a conference call at 11.00 CET, https://tv.streamfabriken.com/arise-q1-2022 ; or dial-in at SE: +46 8 505 583 57; UK: +44 33 330 092 63.
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