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It is difficult to imagine Aspo posting any positive surprises in the near future. Weak markets led the company to downgrade its full-year guidance as recently as May. Shipping volumes in the steel and forest industries for 2023 could remain weaker than last year. In addition, international demand for Supramax vessels is poor. New hybrid vessels will begin arriving in late 2023, which could mean increased pressure on utilisation ratios. ESL Shipping might even adjust its older capacity in H2. Our medium-term estimates are largely unchanged, and thus we keep our fair value range of EUR 8.0-9.8 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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