We believe H2 will show intensified news flow, including potential for further licence agreements in orthopaedics, continued roll-out of Hydrocyn Aqua, and updated financial targets to reflect the acquisition of Vigilenz. We also expect Zimmer Biomet to file 510(k) for Bactiguard coated trauma implants by year-end 2020. In addition, a potential earlier than expected launch in the EU based on the CE-mark received in December 2018 is possible and represents upside to our current 2020 estimates as we cautiously assume sales in EU in 2021.
Revised valuation range of SEK 160-184 per share
After Q2, we lift our 2020-22 EBITDA estimates by 6-10%, which is due to a more positive stance on Bactiguard’s gross margin. As a result, we raise our valuation range to SEK 160-184 per share from SEK 145-168. In addition, due to the lumpiness of Bactiguard’s licence business, we provide a scenario analysis with various 2021E EBITDA and forward-looking valuation multiples.
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