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BankNordik: Rate hikes bode well for 2023E - Nordea

Following BankNordik's Q3 report, we lift 2023E-24E adjusted EPS by ~11-15% to reflect a positive impact on both NII and investment income from rate hikes. Moreover, we now expect an ROE of ~12% by 2024, which is 2 pp above BankNordik's proposed 2024 target. Hence, this suggests that there may be scope for a guidance upgrade down the road. We still expect that ~70% of the bank's market cap will be paid out to shareholders by the end of 2024 in order for the bank to reach its capitalisation target. Lastly, we raise our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 227-253 (197-220). The share is trading at a 2024E excess capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.3x, ~55% below peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.

Following BankNordik's Q3 report, we lift 2023E-24E adjusted EPS by ~11-15% to reflect a positive impact on both NII and investment income from rate hikes. Moreover, we now expect an ROE of ~12% by 2024, which is 2 pp above BankNordik's proposed 2024 target. Hence, this suggests that there may be scope for a guidance upgrade down the road. We still expect that ~70% of the bank's market cap will be paid out to shareholders by the end of 2024 in order for the bank to reach its capitalisation target. Lastly, we raise our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 227-253 (197-220). The share is trading at a 2024E excess capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.3x, ~55% below peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.
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