Bet-at-home: Q3 26e: Gaming to take the lead on volume growth - NuWays AG Research
bet-at-home.com will release its Q3 figures on November 5th. We expect top- and bottom-line improvements, with particularly strong growth in Gaming.
ANNONS
Strong GGR growth anticipated. GGR is to rise by 9.3% yoy to € 11.2m (eNuW), with both segments contributing. Key growth drivers include an anticipated improved Betting margin related to internal optimization efforts and an acceleration in Gaming. Net revenue looks set to grow faster than GGR, rising 11.1% yoy to € 8.5m (eNuW), as a higher Gaming share reduces the tax burden (eNuW: € 2.7m, 24.5% of GGR).
Estimates unchanged. We expect Gaming to maintain its strong growth trajectory, with stronger- than-anticipated adoption of higher permitted bets per spin representing a potential short-term catalyst. While Betting revenue growth is expected to remain seasonally subdued in Q3, we anticipate stronger growth in Q4. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 GGR estimate of € 49m. By contrast, the FY26 EBITDA before special items guidance of € 0–4m appears feasible, but demanding. We project the 9M figure at € -1.2m. Achieving the guidance range is expected to depend on a strong Q4 contribution.
We reiterate BUY at a PT of € 5.0, based on FCFY ́26e.
