* Adj. EBITA -18% vs cons, FY guidance lowered by ~5-10%
* Small improvements in North America, but not enough to save 2025
* Reiterate H1'26 growth guide, but estimates down 5-8% likely
Q3 details
Sales SEK 626m (-2% vs ABG 640m, -3% vs cons 642m), adj. EBITA 45m (-25% vs ABG 60m, -18% vs cons 55m), adj. EBITA margin 7.2% (ABG 9.4%, cons 8.6%). Adj. EBITA -25% y-o-y (ABG 0%, cons -9%). Organic growth -1% (ABG 0%, cons 1%). Cash flow soft with Q3 operating cash flow -32% y-o-y and YTD -98% y-o-y requiring a catch up in Q4.
FY guidance lowered
EBITA beat in North America and Europe, miss in Other markets vs consensus expectations. North American turnaround starting to show positive signs with improving sales/employee, but less high-margin sales affected profitability negatively. More cautious business climate slowed growth in Other markets, requiring more growth investments in sales and marketing, pressuring margins. BTS guides for negative Q4 growth in North America (cons -8% y-o-y). FY guidance lowered from “worse” 2025 EBITA vs 2024 to “significantly worse”, which we interpret as at least 10% decline (vs cons -4% y-o-y), blaming a somewhat softer European demand in Q4, the Q3 miss and continued negative FX effects. Reiterate growth comeback in H1’26 (vs cons 7% organic growth for FY 2026).
Estimates down 5-8%
We expect consensus to reduce 2025 EBITA by 5-8% due to the miss and lowered guidance, and share should underperform similarly today. Conf call CET 8.00.
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