Capman: 8% EBIT beat driven by fair value changes - Nordea

CapMan reported Q4 EBIT of 12.2m, 8% above Infront consensus and 52% above Nordea estimates. Investment business EBIT was EUR 9.6m (fair value changes EUR 10.1m) in Q4 and came above Nordea estimate of EUR 3.1m. Management Company EBIT of EUR 3.2 came 33% below Nordea estimate while Service Business EBIT of EUR 1.2m came 20% below Nordea estimate. CapMan recorded EUR 0.3m of carry during Q4 (Nordea EUR 1m, after EUR 2.2m in Q3). Hence, if we adjust for lower quality carry, underlying management company business EBIT came 25% below our estimate, burdened by higher salaries and bonus accruals. AuM increased to EUR 4.5bn (EUR 4.3bn in Q3 and up 18% y/y). After the review period, CapMan Nordic Real Estate fund has on an exit, which at completion would transfer the fund to carry (we have modelled EUR 17.5m carry in 2022E). The company expects to see continued AuM growth during next 12-months. EPS of EUR 0.057 came sli ghtly below consensus of EUR 0.060. Dividend proposal is EUR 0.15 (consensus and Nordea EUR 0.15), to be paid in two instalments. We believe the consensus will make slightly negative estimate revisions given higher cost base in management company business.