CapMan: A soft Q2 driven by sequential fee decline and negative fair value changes in external funds - Nordea

CapMan reported Q2 EBIT of 4.2m, clearly below Refinitiv consensus at EUR 10.7m. The deviation is likely explained to some extent by fair value changes and carry, while we also note soft Management company business fee income. Investment business EBIT was EUR -0.4m (fair value changes EUR -0.3m) in Q2 and came below Nordea estimate of EUR 0.9m (EUR +1.1m fair value changes). Fair value changes in own funds remained on positive territory, while negative fair value changes stem from external funds. Management Company EBIT of EUR 2.2m came 48% below Nordea estimate driven partly by EUR 2.8m carry booking (we had modelled EUR 4m). When excluding carry, management fees came 15% below our estimate and down 13% q/q (down 4% y/y), while EBIT came 48% below our estimate. Service Business EBIT of EUR 1.5m came slightly below Nordea estimate of EUR 1.6m. AuM declined slightly to EUR 5.0bn (EUR 5.1bn in Q1 and EUR 5bn in 2022) and the company expects growth to continue in AuM in 2023. CapMan has raised EUR 87m in new capital during Q2 (EUR 35m to Infra) and notes longer fundraising processes. Owing to soft Management company fees, we expect the consensus to make negative underlying estimate revisions on the back of the Q2 report.