Q1 expectations
To our understanding, demand has remained solid for Cavotec, but cost headwinds still remain due to legacy orders (effect should fade in H2'23) as well as general cost inflation. We therefore expect the backlog to remain stable q-o-q at EUR 147m, while sales should decline q-o-q due to seasonality and reach EUR 38m (+42% y-o-y organically). The clear backlog support should result in a gradual ramp-up for the rest of 2023, and we expect sequential growth of c. 10% in each quarter for the remainder of 2023. The higher sales level, in combination with less cost pressure, should yield break-even profitability in Q2'23e and margins of 6-10% in H2'23e. For Q1 however, we expect a loss of ~EUR 3m. The recent equity issue has partially lowered the financing risk, and we expect cash flow to improve materially in H2'23e as well, yielding a ND/EBITDA of 1.2x by YE'23e.
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