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Duni: Winner from the European Championship - SEB

While the European Championship in Germany is likely to boost volumes for Duni in Q2 and Q3, potentially offsetting the contracts lost in Q1, we believe higher input costs will pose short-term headwinds on margins, and we have lowered our 2024 EBIT estimate by 11%. However, at a valuation of 6x EV/EBIT in 2025E, we argue that the stock is undervalued, given the quality of the business. We update our DCF-derived mid-point fair value to SEK 171 (173).

While the European Championship in Germany is likely to boost volumes for Duni in Q2 and Q3, potentially offsetting the contracts lost in Q1, we believe higher input costs will pose short-term headwinds on margins, and we have lowered our 2024 EBIT estimate by 11%. However, at a valuation of 6x EV/EBIT in 2025E, we argue that the stock is undervalued, given the quality of the business. We update our DCF-derived mid-point fair value to SEK 171 (173).
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