Q4'22 expectations
We expect Ecoclime to report Q4 sales of SEK 67m, up 49% y-o-y (+11% organic, +38% M&A), whereof the organic growth is mainly driven by Circular Energy. We expect Circular Energy to contribute SEK 18m, i.e. ~7 Evertherm systems (assuming SEK 2.5m per system), putting FY'22e system sales at ~23. We expect a gross margin of 51%, similar to Q3 (50%), but down substantially y-o-y from 72%. This is partly an effect of temporary margin pressure on installations contracts that have burdened Ecoclime's earnings in during '22, but also dilution from the consolidation of Miljöbelysing. All in all, on a lower gross margin and growing opex base, we expect an adj. EBITDA of SEK 0.2m (SEK 3.8m).
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