ES Group AB: Aira drives Q3 beat, underlying softer - ABG
* Sales SEK 57m (42m excl. one-off) vs. ABGSCe 73m * EBIT SEK 11m vs. ABGSCe 4m (SEK -4m excl. Aira one-off) * Strong Q4 guided, FCF positive and cash at SEK 33m
ANNONS
Q3 results
ES reported Q3 sales of SEK 57m (vs. ABGSCe 73m), including ~SEK 15m in one-off payments from the Aira contract extension. Excluding these, sales were SEK 42m, down 8% y-o-y. Residential drove the quarter, while Commercial declined against a clearance sale last year. ES-branded sales grew 17% y-o-y adjusted for F-gas quota sales in the comparison quarter. EBIT came in at SEK 11m (vs. ABGSCe 4m, -3m LY), lifted by the Aira payments. Excluding the one-off, EBIT was SEK -4m. Inventory continued down to SEK 69m (93m LY) and FCF was positive at SEK 2.6m (0.7m LY). Cash ended at SEK 33m, helped by SEK 17m in net proceeds from the unit issue.
Estimate changes and outlook
On numbers alone, ‘26e sales is impacted negatively by ~7% (~14% excl. the Aira one-off) and adj. EBIT by SEK -8m (vs. FY’26e estimate of SEK -7m). Management expects a strong Q4 and says improved H2 performance should bring the company closer to break-even for FY’26. The extended Aira contract (~SEK 75m, deliveries Q1-Q3'27) is expected to contribute ~SEK 20m to FY’26 earnings, of which ~SEK 15m was booked in Q3.
Valuation
Prior to today's report, the share was flat L3M and is trading at 12x-5x '27e-'28e P/E on our pre-report estimates. The company will host a presentation of the Q3 results at 10:00.
