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Ferronordic will report its Q1 results on 12 May. We forecast sales to be up by 12% y/y and EBIT by 46%, despite currency headwinds. The expected improvement will be driven by all segments but in particular by strong unit sales in Russia, as suggested by recent market data. Our forecast puts us 22% above consensus on EBIT for Q1, due to higher sales and margin estimates. For the medium term, we forecast an EBIT CAGR of 12% (2019-23), supported by Volvo's strong order intake. Ferronordic has diversified its business by entering the German truck segment, which, in our opinion, lowers the risks, while trading at a 50% discount to our peer group. We raise our multiples-based fair equity value range to SEK 197-248 (194-243), representing a 2022E EV/EBIT of 5.5-7.0x.
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