We expect Ferronordic to present clear growth when it reports Q4 results on 19 February, with sales up 33% y/y and adjusted EBIT up 17% y/y, despite currency headwinds. We increase our sales estimate by 2% for 2020, but leave 2021E-22E unchanged due to positive market data in Russia and Germany. We also add 5% to our estimate for Germany's sales from acquired outlets but take a slightly more prudent stance on Contracting Services. We raise our EBIT margin estimates by 0.1-0.2 pp for 2021-22, up to 8.3-8.4%, as we expect a stronger gross margin. We believe Ferronordic has the capacity for a higher dividend and further expansion in Germany, as net debt has declined to 0.2x EBITDA in Q3. We update our multiples-based fair value to SEK 163-213 (187-230), implying a 2022E EV/EBIT of 5.5x-7.0x (previously 7-8.5x for 2021E), the midpoint of which suggests a 45% discount to peers.
LÄS MER
