Raised FX component partially offset by lower prices We raise our ’22e-’24e EBIT estimates by 23-33%, mostly a sales-driven upgrade following the RUB rallying during the quarter, which in turn is partially offset by lowered prices. We continue to see a significant sales decline in Russia in ’23e as operating the Contracting Services segment becomes more difficult (we estimate a hard stop in mid-’23 and see any sales beyond this as a “bonus”). Our current estimates include Germany reporting its first quarter of positive EBIT in Q4’22 and reaching EBIT of SEK 54m (2.6% margin) in ’24.
Fair value SEK 33-53 (30-50) on raised Russia/CIS estimates Due to extreme uncertainty in Russa/CIS beyond ’22e, we value the segment at 1x ’22e EV/EBIT. For Germany, our lower end applies 8x EV/EBIT to our ’24e estimates, while our high end applies 8x EV/EBIT to ’26e earnings, when we estimate a “steady” EBIT margin of 5.0%. A ... Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
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