With FY’21 proving increasingly difficult in terms of supply chain and sourcing issues, GomSpace downgraded its FY’21 guidance at the end of October ’21, now guiding for FY’21 revenues of SEK 215m-235m (ABGSCe SEK 223m vs. cons SEK 222m). This indicates a very back-end loaded year, with Q4 revenues needing to be in the range of SEK 83m-103m (ABGSCe SEK 90m, cons. SEK 90m), placing it as a record quarter in terms of revenue generation. We do not expect the strong revenue generation to translate into a strong bottom-line, as we anticipate that component sourcing will continue to be a key margin-diluting element, rendering GomSpace unable to deliver on its higher margin product orders and instead have a revenue stream skewed toward lower margin projects, heavy on engineering.
Focus likely to be on FY’22 guidance, components and cash
Going into the Q4 report we expect the focus to be on the FY’22 sales guidance, which we estimate to be around SEK 300m (cons. SEK 301m), backed by a very strong order backlog, which we expect to be around SEK 400m at year end 2021 (up from SEK 209m at YE 2020). Additionally, we expect a strong focus on the continued sourcing challenges (which we anticipate to continue in FY’22) and the impact this will have on generating a positive cash flow to keep a positive cash balance.
Fair value range reiterated, backed by strong order backlog
While we acknowledge the risks, especially in the short term, we do continue to see a solid long-term outlook, with a strong order backlog, which will be able to materialise when the sourcing climate improves. We reiterate our scenario-based fair value range of SEK 8-47. Läs mer på Introduce
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