* Q2 order book size and only one announced order in Q3 add risk
* We cut EBIT by 2% in 2025-27e, mainly due to weaker FX
* Q3e: sales SEK 404m (-12% vs. cons) and EBIT SEK 74m (-24%)
Consensus looks high based on the Q2 order book
The defence market is red hot; spending will increase over many years and Invisio has an impressive product portfolio and track record that should capture a significant share of the market, in our view. However, lead times remain somewhat extended, and order activity is likely to pick up later in 2025 or 2026, adding some estimate risk near-term. The average 2025 sales estimate for global military names is, for example, unchanged since 1 January despite news on increased budgets. FactSet consensus has 37% organic growth for Q3, although the Q2 order book was 2% lower y-o-y and there has only been one announced large order late in Q3. The Q3 sales conversion of the Q2 order book between 2022 and 2024 has been at 39-49%, with some Q3's supported by larger in-quarter orders as well. With this reasoning, we end up 12% below consensus on sales in Q3, although we still estimate 20% organic growth (which is a 57% conversion of the Q2 order book), and we find ourselves as the lowest of the contributors. With weaker FX, the gross margin could also take a small hit (products shipped earlier this year being sold at lower FX rates in Q3). We estimate Q3 EBIT of SEK 74m (24% below FactSet cons. of SEK 97m), so we find the risk-reward on estimates on the negative side going into the Q3 report based on the above arguments.
Estimates trimmed
We make small negative estimate revisions of -1% on sales and -2% on EBIT in 2025-27, mainly as a result of weaker FX movements since our latest update.
Share at 31x 2026e EV/EBIT
On our updated numbers, the share is trading at 40x 2025e EV/EBIT, and 31x 2026e. We find the long-term growth story as compelling and Invisio's market position as strong, but highlight near-term risk to consensus on the downside going into the Q3 report.
LÄS MER
