Invisio: Q3 PW on delayed deliveries - ABG
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Invisio: Q3 PW on delayed deliveries - ABG

* Q3 sales -36% vs cons, EBIT SEK -3m vs cons 91m * Main reason is delayed deliveries, Q3 order intake +5% vs cons * 2025e EBIT estimates down 5-10%, less so on 2026e Delayed deliveries behind Q3 miss Invisio just sent out a Q3 profit warning, with sales of SEK 290m (-28% vs ABG 404m, -36% vs cons 451m), EBIT -3m (vs ABG 74m, cons 91m) and order intake 480m (20% vs ABG 400m, 5% vs cons 457m). Organic sales growth estimated at -13% (vs cons 32%), and order intake is -5% y-o-y. Sales miss due to longer delivery times than expected and some supply constraints when customer orders become more complex. The maintained solid order intake (despite few large announced orders in Q3) shows that the underlying momentum is good and Q3 will end with a record high order book, prepared for coming quarters’ deliveries. We expect consensus to cut 2025e EBIT by 5-10% as delayed deliveries should come in Q4, and less so on 2026e given the better than expected order intake in Q3. Estimate cuts of 5-10% in 2025e Based on a gross margin of 60% in Q3 (not announced), opex of SEK 177m seems to be in line with expectations (ABG 170m, cons 180m), so the miss seems to be related to lower sales entirely. We expect consensus to cut 2025e EBIT by 5-10% as delayed deliveries should come in Q4, and less so on 2026e given the better than expected order intake in Q3.

* Q3 sales -36% vs cons, EBIT SEK -3m vs cons 91m * Main reason is delayed deliveries, Q3 order intake +5% vs cons * 2025e EBIT estimates down 5-10%, less so on 2026e Delayed deliveries behind Q3 miss Invisio just sent out a Q3 profit warning, with sales of SEK 290m (-28% vs ABG 404m, -36% vs cons 451m), EBIT -3m (vs ABG 74m, cons 91m) and order intake 480m (20% vs ABG 400m, 5% vs cons 457m). Organic sales growth estimated at -13% (vs cons 32%), and order intake is -5% y-o-y. Sales miss due to longer delivery times than expected and some supply constraints when customer orders become more complex. The maintained solid order intake (despite few large announced orders in Q3) shows that the underlying momentum is good and Q3 will end with a record high order book, prepared for coming quarters’ deliveries. We expect consensus to cut 2025e EBIT by 5-10% as delayed deliveries should come in Q4, and less so on 2026e given the better than expected order intake in Q3. Estimate cuts of 5-10% in 2025e Based on a gross margin of 60% in Q3 (not announced), opex of SEK 177m seems to be in line with expectations (ABG 170m, cons 180m), so the miss seems to be related to lower sales entirely. We expect consensus to cut 2025e EBIT by 5-10% as delayed deliveries should come in Q4, and less so on 2026e given the better than expected order intake in Q3.
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