We initiate coverage on IRLAB Therapeutics (IRLAB), a clinical stage biotech company focused on the discovery and development of new pharmacological treatments for neurological diseases, with a primary focus on Parkinson’s disease (PD). The company is in Ph 2b clinical trials for its lead drug candidates, mesdopetam and pirepemat, for the treatment of dyskinesia (troublesome involuntary muscle movements) caused by the long-term use of PD drugs, and poor balance in PD leading to frequent falls, respectively. These drug candidates stem from IRLAB’s proprietary drug discovery platform, which has been developed to predict optimal drug candidates for neurological disorders.
A platform for future out-licensing deals
IRLAB’s business strategy is to leverage its platform to generate new drug candidates and out-license these towards mid-to-late stage development. In 2021 IRLAB out-licensed its lead asset mesdopetam to Ipsen, a global mid-size pharma company with a strong interest in CNS disorders, in a deal totalling USD 363m. Apart from Ipsen’s resources and know-how raising the likelihood of success for mesdopetam and removing the costs to IRLAB of continued development post the Ph 2b study, the deal is a first proof of principle of IRLAB’s business strategy.
Initiating coverage with fair value range of SEK 22-54
We base our valuation on three different scenarios that yield a rNPV/share of SEK 22, 44 and 54 using prevalence based, risk-adjusted DCF models for mesdopetam in PD-levodopa-induced dyskinesia and pirepemat in PD-falls, where we estimate market launches in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Scenario 1 assumes a lower-than-historical likelihood of success for mesdopetam and pirepemat, with peak risk-adjusted sales of USD 260m and USD 340m, respectively. Scenario 2 as
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