Medicover: India divestment: top line down, bottom line up - ABG
* Q3'26 numbers due on 4 November at 07:45 CET * Estimate changes reflect India divestment * Fair value changed to SEK 220-300 (190-270)
ANNONS
Q3'26 expectations
Overall, we expect Medicover to perform broadly in line with Q2'26. As the Indian (MHI) divestment is expected to close in Q4'26, we model a P&L for continuing operations (ex. MHI) for the quarter, but a balance sheet and cash flow for the group. The divestment lets Medicover focus on its core European markets. In Poland and Romania, public funding pressure and high inflation still weigh on the publicly funded business, but we expect a gradual volume recovery as the mix shifts toward FFS and the sports business matures. For HS (ex. MHI), we forecast org. growth of 12.1% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.3%, lifted by the exit of lower-margin MHI. For DS, unaffected by the divestment, we forecast org. growth of 12.5% and an EBITDAaL margin of 14.6%. We forecast total sales of EUR 592m (12.4% org. growth) and adj. EBITDA of EUR 105m (17.8% margin).
Estimate changes driven by India exit
Our estimate revisions ahead of the Q3 report mostly reflect the MHI divestment. India LTM makes up ~9% of sales and ~3% of EBIT, but is loss-making at net profit level and dilutive to margins. We have lowered our sales and EBIT estimates and raised our margin and EPS estimates to reflect this. For continuing operations, as the network matures in both segments, we believe the ongoing mix shift with a higher share of FFS will support continued margin gains. With ND/EBITDAaL at ~0x post deal, the EUR 740m gross proceeds leave room for M&A in core markets, which could support future growth, although the use of the cash has not been communicated.
Fair value range changed to SEK 220-300 (190-270)
The share is up ~24% L3M. We change our FVR to SEK 220-300 (190-270). The range is based on trading multiples of developed-market and CEE healthcare and diagnostics peers, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 9-11x.
