NoHo Partners: Restaurant market demand appears to be holding well after the summer - Nordea

The Finnish restaurant market demand has remained solid after summer. Nordea has released card data until week 33 with sales trending clearly above 2019-21. In addition, we note that the company noted in its Q2 that demand has remained favourable early Q3 and bookings for Q4 suggest a solid end to the year. We have considered another guidance upgrade possible in late 2022 and the current market demand situation looks promising. In addition, Kesko disclosed today that its foodservice business (Kespro) sales growth was 28% y/y in August after 3% y/y growth in July. High inflation and low consumer confidence continues to create uncertainties for H2 and 2023, while we believe the restaurant market could be surprisingly resilient, especially after COVID-19 driven restrictions curbed demand during the past years. For Q3, we are in line with Refinitiv consensus on sales and 13% above on EBIT, most likely due to mix effect (higher share of sales from Entertainment venues). We and consensus expect Q3 sales to be up 9% from Q3 2019, which could be viewed conservative when looking the latest card data and taking into consideration acquisitions. For 2022E-23E, we are well in line with consensus.