Nolato's VHP customer, British American Tobacco (BAT) is currently in a phase of rolling out its new product, Glo Hyper X2, meaning it is in need of building up inventories. Since Nolato has not been producing any VHP products since October, we see it as likely that BAT is currently on lower-than-planned inventories, which could cause a recoil effect in Q1 if BAT needs to re-stock.
Trading at 13x '23e EV/EBITA
On our current estimates, the share is now trading at 13x EV/EBITA. Although Nolato getting the permit was already in our estimates, we note that had it been delayed further the Q4 guidance would have been at risk. As such, we see this as a risk-mitigating factor.