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Nordic Waterproofing: Difficult Q2 comps will get easier in H2e - ABG

Q2 report due on Thursday 20 July
Price hikes fading, but volumes are still declining
11x '23e EV/EBITA on bottom-of-cycle earnings


Difficult Q2 comps get gradually easier during H2e

We expect Nordic Waterproofing (NWG) to report sales of SEK 1,270m, up 1% y-o-y (-11% org, +6% M&A, +6% FX). Latent effects from last year's price hikes are now starting to fade (we est. +4% price growth in Q2) while the volume decline remains (we est. -15%). Although a more stable bitumen price should support a solid gross margin, expected under-absorption of fixed costs due to lower volumes and weak earnings from prefabricated elements (~17% of sales) results in an estimated EBIT of SEK 143m (-21% y-o-y), for a margin of 11.3% (14.4%). We note that for Q2 NWG faces difficult comps since H1'22 was a sweet spot where it started hiking prices, but volumes had not yet started to decline too drastically, and we note that comps will get gradually easier in the coming quarters.
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