OrganoClick: Soft end to 2025, better setup into 2026 - ABG
* Q4 sales -16% vs. ABGSCe, miss in GC&MP and FW * NW&FT showing positive signs; we see a return to growth in '26e * We cut '26e-'27e sales by 7% on weaker-than-expected report
ANNONS
Q4 results
OrganoClick reported Q4 sales of SEK 18m (-16% vs. ABGSCe) and EBIT adj. of SEK -11m (vs. ABGSCe at -5.5m). The sales miss was mostly driven by GC&MP and FW. In GC&MP, sales were particularly weak in December across most segments. Looking ahead, the company’s decision to exit an unprofitable BIOkleen private label agreement implies a ~SEK -4.5m sales headwind for GC&MP (mainly Q1), but with a limited EBIT impact. FW was soft following German distributor inventory replenishment in Q3 and persistent weak demand in Sweden. We expect Sweden to remain sluggish in the near-term but remain positive on the sales development Germany in '26e, which we expect will help FW to reach stabilised levels in FY'26e. The improving NW&FT sales (+17% y-o-y) were a clear positive in Q4, and were partly driven by a volume shift from Q3, but also by slightly improved end-markets.
Estimate changes and outlook
Given the weaker-than-expected Q4 figures, we lower ’26e-’27e sales by 7% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 9m. We still view the setup into 2026 as improving, supported by NW&FT momentum (we estimate 14% growth in '26e) and the SEK 20m savings programme (almost full effect from Jan-26). Management also expects NW&FT sales from new customers that are planning to launch wipes and food pads.
Valuation
OrganoClick is currently trading at 2.2x-2.1x '26e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 4.6x-1.5x. Although Q4 was weaker than expected, we think the company is set up to reach profitability in '27e with the help of improving end-markets and cost savings in place.
