Influenza spread likely put a dent in Q4 sales
We are lowering estimates based on worsened Q4 market conditions and a more cautious outlook for Cranial growth. Firstly, Q4e has likely not been the smooth quarter we previously expected. According to our tracker, a sharp increase in the spread of influenza in early December resulted in significant staffing shortages. Furthermore, in the EU, strikes in the UK and lower procedure volumes in Germany should also have a negative effect. Given the relatively low priority of cranial PSI-related surgeries that can often be postponed, we think sales have suffered in both regions. This feeds into our reason for cutting long-term estimates. We expect that 1) OssDsign has reduced focus on Cranial PSI through reallocating the organisation's sales efforts more towards Catalyst, and 2) hospitals likely have more reluctance in using products with long lead times (Cranial PSI 5/6-weeks) given the more volatile nature of hospital operations due to persisting staffing issues.
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