Q4: A messy quarter
Q4 EBIT was SEK 1m vs. ABGSCe at SEK 140m. The reported earnings were hurt by several non-recurring items (~SEK 70m), lower production (and weaker mix), and significantly higher costs (especially for chemicals). We have underestimated the profit contribution from the groundwood pulp line in 2022 (close to zero profit contribution in 2021), which also explains some of the deviation from our estimate. Q1 should be better than Q4, driven by less maintenance and fewer non-recurring items, but partly offset by higher wood costs, lower prices and FX headwinds. On estimates, we reduce '23e driven by a higher loss of profit from the groundwood line, lower volumes, and higher costs, but these are partly offset by higher pulp price assumptions.
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