Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Stockwik: Industry segment showing the way - ABG

Q4 results better than we expected
M&A will continue in 2022
12x ‘22e EV/EBITA

Adj. EBITA 35% vs. ABGSCe
Stockwik’s Q4 results marked a solid ending to 2021. Sales were in line with our expectations at SEK 192m, up 33% y-o-y, mainly driven by recent acquisitions. Adj. EBITA was 21.5m (35% vs. ABGSCe), up 226% y-o-y, corresponding to an adj. EBITA margin of 11.2% (4.6%) vs. ABGSCe at 8.2%. The estimate outperformance was driven by the Industry segment, where we saw stronger-than-expected margin recovery y-o-y, up ~21 pp. All in all, Stockwik reported FY’21 pro forma sales and EBITA of SEK 649.1m and 56.3m, respectively, corresponding to a pro forma EBITA margin of 8.7%. Pro forma ND/EBITDA was 3.4x

‘22e-23e adj. EBITA estimates up by 2%
We raise our ‘22e-‘23e EBITA estimates by 2% for each year on slightly higher margin assumptions in the Industry segment. Looking ahead, we estimate a ’21-‘24e adj. EBITA CAGR of 19%. Management, however, states that the foundation for a continued high pace of acquisitions is in place, thus providing upside to our estimates.

12x ‘22e EV/EBITA
The share is down 9% YTD and is trading at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA, 6% below our core peer group average. It offers 8-9% lease adj. FCF yield for ‘23e-‘24e.
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