The outlook remains uncertain, with macroeconomic worries driven by surging energy prices and inflation. Despite optimistic commentary on the momentum out of the quarter, we continue to consider the outlook for the project market, ~15% of group sales, as soft and take a slightly more cautious view on sales across the group after the report showed earlier declines for the Svedbergs brand than previously forecast. In total, we lower '23e-'24e net sales by 2-0%. Cost savings from layoffs to be gained in '23e and a maintained gross margin with lower freight rates in COGS mean that we raise '23e-'24e EBITA by 0-1%, however.
Share trading at 7x-6x ’23e-’24e EV/EBITA
After Wednesday's positive share reaction, Svedbergs is trading at 7x-6x ‘23e-‘24e EV/EBITA on our updated estimates. After only minimal estimate changes, we leave our fair value range unchanged at SEK 31-46.
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