UK sales stronger than market and group
We expect the story in Q1'23 to repeat in Q2'23e, with UK outperforming the Nordics. We acknowledge the strength of Roper Rhodes but note that the CPA expects the UK market to drop by 9% in FY'23, so we forecast an organic net sales decline of 3% for the brand in Q2'23e. In Sweden, a sharp decline in the number of tax reduction applications, fewer house transactions and fewer building starts mean we expect an organic drop of 11% for the Svedbergs brand in the quarter. Despite easier comps, we expect Macro Design and Cassoe to continue to underperform versus the larger brands, with 19% and 17% organic declines in Q2'23e respectively. All in all, we expect Q2'23e net sales of SEK 464m, or organic growth of -7% y-o-y. FX tailwinds from GBPSEK add 3-4% to '23e-'25e net sales, offseting our slightly more cautious organic growth estimates, which results in 2-3% higher '23e-'25e net sales.
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