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Swedish Stirling: Revising near-term fundamentals after aborted preference share issue - Emergers

With the planned preference share issue cancelled with reference to market conditions, Swedish Stirling is now returning to its original business model of being a system provider rather than an energy converter. As a consequence the deal with Glencore will now need to be renegotiated and combined with the already halted negotiations with Samancor, this means that near-term visibility has deteriorated significantly. While the industrial and technical case remains intact, our best guess is that this pushes ramp-up at least a year into the future. We now find support for a new fair value of SEK 9–12 (SEK 15–22) per share in 12-24 months.

With the planned preference share issue cancelled with reference to market conditions, Swedish Stirling is now returning to its original business model of being a system provider rather than an energy converter. As a consequence the deal with Glencore will now need to be renegotiated and combined with the already halted negotiations with Samancor, this means that near-term visibility has deteriorated significantly. While the industrial and technical case remains intact, our best guess is that this pushes ramp-up at least a year into the future. We now find support for a new fair value of SEK 9–12 (SEK 15–22) per share in 12-24 months.
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