The implied high Q2’21 net profit is behind our fair value range including M&A for VB increasing slightly to DKK 2.8-5.6 (2.7-5.5). Following the DKK 3.45 bid per share from Arbejdernes Landsbank (AL), the stake of AL was increased to ~73% (61%) as announced on 7 July. AL has stated that it will not seek a dividend for the coming period, and we now believe the 25% potential DPS payout for 2021 is unlikely. Thus, we remove the 25% DPS for 2021, while we keep a 50% DPS payout ratio for ’22-’23 to moderate the buildup of excess equity. We now estimate a 2023e CET1 of 20.3%, which is much higher than the 14.5 CET1 targeted by VB. Not paying DPS for 2021 is a drag on ‘23e RONAV (70bp down to 10.3%) but in our valuation we adjust for CET1 above 18.5%.
‘23e adj. EPS is unchanged (see page 3). VB is trading at a ‘22e adj. P/E of 7.8x while the share could see support from the M&A angle related to AL and potential synergies attached.
Aktuellt
SENASTE
