Solid Q4e likely to include a fifth FY'24 guidance upgrade
We expect another strong quarterly report from OrderYOYO (Q4 due on 17 January) and anticipate the fifth upgrade of the FY'24 guidance YTD. We forecast GMV of DKK 3,405m and ARR of DKK 351m, equating to a take rate of ~10% and 18.5% y-o-y ARR growth. The corresponding organic growth is ~14% after the inclusion of an estimated DKK 12m in ARR from the recently acquired App4 (assuming a take rate of 5%). Based off DKK 82m in Q4e revenues (vs. the implied DKK 79m from the high end of guidance and DKK 78m in Q3), we model adj. EBITDA of DKK 16m. This equates to a margin of 20%, up 7pp y-o-y and up 1pp q-o-q, and takes the FY'24e figure 3% above the high end of guidance. We are also 5% above the cash EBITDA guidance despite a q-o-q increase in capitalised R&D.
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