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Ahead of Elanders' Q4 report, we lower 2024E adjusted EBITA by 2%, while we raise 2025E-26E by 2%. We expect Q4 earnings to remain flat y/y, although we expect Supply Chain Solutions to drive group organic growth of 2%, supported by a slight recovery in demand from Electronics and Fashion in Europe. With generally lower interest rates, we are cautiously optimistic about a demand recovery demand in 2025. Longer term, we remain encouraged by Elanders' ongoing transformation following its recent margin-accretive acquisitions and further structural measures to streamline operations – reducing its automotive exposure while raising margins. We pencil in a 2024-26 adjusted EBITA CAGR of 14%. With 2025E lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 3.2x, we look for Elanders to continue deleveraging its balance sheet. We nudge our multiples-based fair value range up to SEK 81-142 (SEK 77-136), implying 2025E 10-12x EV/EBITA. Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.
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