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Arctic Paper: Still waiting for a relief - ABG

Q4e: Clean paper EBIT of ~PLN 10m
Paper prices down, demand muted
Fair value range of SEK 40-80


This is our earnings bridge:

We expect Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 10m, down from PLN 20m in Q3'24. The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -18m from lower paper prices, PLN +5m from marginally better volumes (seasonality effects) and PLN +3m from higher pulp prices. Pulp EBIT will likely be ~PLN 31m lower q-o-q driven by lower pulp prices and maintenance at Rottneros. Hence, we expect Q4 group EBIT of ~PLN -2m vs. PLN 48m in Q3'24. Arctic Paper will also book a ~PLN 30m one-off gain related to energy compensation. We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of PLN 10-20m driven by lower pulp prices.
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