Medicover: Momentum still in motion - ABG
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Medicover: Momentum still in motion - ABG

Strong Q1 with operational leverage driving margin expansion
Adj. EBITDA up 4-5% for '25e-'27e after including recent M&A
We keep our fair value range of SEK 180-260


Strong growth and margin expansion despite a flat India

Medicover had a strong first quarter with a beat on adj. EBITDA (+8%/+9% vs. ABGSCe/Infront cons). Q1 sales were EUR 578m (+2% vs. ABGSCe, +1% vs. cons) with organic sales growth of +14% (ABGSCe +14%), driven by better than expected pricing in Healthcare Services, slightly offset by a miss in Diagnostic Services (-3% vs. ABGSCe). As we alluded to in our preview, India was weak in the quarter for several reasons, including weak consumers, but management expects a return to strong growth already in Q2'25e. Nevertheless, margins improved in both segments and the group adj. EBITDA margin was 15.7% (ABGSCe 14.9%, cons 14.5%). In Healthcare Services, the Polish ambulatory, sports/wellness and fertility businesses performed well and the Romanian business helped the margin expansion. Diagnostic Services benefited from volume growth, which drove operating leverage in the segment.
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