Redeye resumes coverage and updates its view on Gapwaves following the Q3 report and the completion of a SEK78m rights issue. Tier 1 partners that have reached the start of production (SOP) are ramping up volumes, with Valeo specifically exceeding initial forecasts. While positive for long-term validation, this acceleration has triggered scaling costs that weighed heavily on the gross margin, which came in at 17% against a forecast of 65% (Q3 2024: 49%). Redeye anticipates these additional costs will pressure margins until production is transferred to external supply partners, expected by Q2/Q3 2026. Ultimately, Redeye views this as a transitional issue and remain positive regarding the long-term trajectory of the agreement. As Gapwaves transitions into a production entity, Redeye’s forecast now incorporate greater granularity regarding antenna types and customers. Additionally, Redeye has postponed the SOP assumptions for Hella Gen 7 and Veoneer/Magna from 2026 to 2027. Following these revised estimates and accounting for dilution from the rights issue, Redeye update its fair value range.
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