Enea (Q1 Preview): Growth in focus - Redeye

Redeye previews Enea's Q1 2026 report, due 23 April. Redeye reduces its net sales estimate by 4pp to a 4% decline y/y, reflecting the investment-year reset management signalled at Q4 2025 and only one larger deal announced in the quarter. Redeye views the sales trajectory as the key variable for the share. Redeye sits 5% above FactSet consensus on Q1 net sales but only 0.5% above on FY. A lower cost base, aligned with Q4 2025 levels, lifts Redeye's EBITDA estimate 2% above its prior forecast. On EBITDA, Redeye sits 30% above FactSet consensus for Q1 but 3% below on FY. Redeye views Q1 as the likely trough quarter: FX headwinds lapse in Q2, and sales force investments made through 2025–2026 should begin generating pipeline conversion in early-to-mid 2027. Consensus estimates sit below the 3-year CAGR target of 10% and the valuation, at 4.5x EV/EBITDA NTM, sits close to the lows seen in H2 2023 when Enea was mid-turnaround.