* Q3 sales and adj. EBITDA 2% below cons, EBIT 3% above * '26e/'27e/'28e adj. EBITDA -1.0%/-2.3%/-2.3% on leases * FVR unchanged at SEK 220-300 on minor estimate revisions
ANNONS
Sales light, margins hold
Revenue (ex-India) grew by 6.0% (restated numbers) y-o-y, to EUR 571m (2% below Infront consensus), with org. growth of 8% and a 2pp FX headwind. The adj. EBITDA margin rose 20bps y-o-y to 17.8%. Healthcare Services grew 8.0% organically (price ~6.3pp) and lifted its EBITDA margin to 19.8% (19.1%), helped by sports/wellness and Polish ambulatory clinics. Polish and Romanian hospitals were softer, and members fell 4% on Romania. Diagnostic Services grew 8.5% organically (price ~4.3pp), driven by FFS up 10% and a richer test mix, with lab tests up 5.3%. The EBITDA margin slipped to 18.5% (18.7%), as Germany was held back, offsetting synergies in Romania and SEE. Softer hospital performance in Poland (lower public-revenue margins, salary inflation) and Romania may persist given the continued public reimbursement pressure. In Germany, the genetics reimbursement reform in force since October will lower the margin contribution going forward, with mitigating actions started but not quantified. Leverage fell to 2.7x (3.1x), partly on the India reclassification.
Estimate changes
We lower adj. EBITDA by 1.0%/2.3%/2.3% for '26e/'27e/'28e, mainly on lower lease cost assumptions. EPS is unchanged in '26e and falls 3.8%/10.0% in '27e/'28e, as we now model to fully reflect lease interest in net financials. Beyond repaying maturing loans (~EUR 450m), we make no assumption on the use of the India proceeds, so further deleveraging or M&A would be EPS accretive. Our operational view is broadly unchanged. '26e includes India in H1.
FVR unchanged at SEK 220-300
We leave our FVR at SEK 220-300 given the limited scale of our revisions. The share is up ~22% LTM and currently trading at 10.6x/9.3x EV/EBITDA for '26e/'27e. We estimate an FCF yield of 6.7-7.6% and a dividend yield of 1.1-1.3% for '27e/'28e.
