InfraCom (Q3 Review): Another turnaround, little visibility - Redeye
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InfraCom (Q3 Review): Another turnaround, little visibility - Redeye

InfraCom's Q3 sales beat our estimate by 5%, but EBITA of SEK15.5m was 26% below our SEK20.9m, for a margin of 7.6% (12.8%) against the 12–15% target. The miss came from a lower gross margin, which fell most in the two core segments, where InfraCom now also points to price pressure and lost customers. The company is again restructuring, this time by merging its companies into one, but has not yet put a figure on the savings. With little earnings visibility, we cut our 2026–28e EBITA by 3–11% and lower our Base Case to SEK9.7 (SEK17.7). The share fell 18.5% on the report. We expect the share to tread water before EBITA stabilises. The only compelling thing is the 6.3x price to 2027's free cash flow and current net debt/EBITDA of 0.61x. InfraCom screens as attractively priced with a fair value of SEK15.3.

InfraCom's Q3 sales beat our estimate by 5%, but EBITA of SEK15.5m was 26% below our SEK20.9m, for a margin of 7.6% (12.8%) against the 12–15% target. The miss came from a lower gross margin, which fell most in the two core segments, where InfraCom now also points to price pressure and lost customers. The company is again restructuring, this time by merging its companies into one, but has not yet put a figure on the savings. With little earnings visibility, we cut our 2026–28e EBITA by 3–11% and lower our Base Case to SEK9.7 (SEK17.7). The share fell 18.5% on the report. We expect the share to tread water before EBITA stabilises. The only compelling thing is the 6.3x price to 2027's free cash flow and current net debt/EBITDA of 0.61x. InfraCom screens as attractively priced with a fair value of SEK15.3.
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