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SENASTE
The somewhat weak Q3 situation continues in Q4 2024. Demand problems led Aspo to downgrade its full-year EBITA guidance to EUR ~30m on 10 December. We also downgrade our EBITA estimates for 2024-25 due to the weak market and reduced visibility. Our new estimates point to a fair value range of EUR 6.6-8.1 (7.3-8.9) per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. The company has invested significantly in growth, making the long-term outlook more promising. However, these investments have taken net debt (including hybrid debt) to almost EUR 200m. The company's adjusted net debt per EBITDA is 3.2x. The strategic execution, as well as overall market environment, needs to be good for Aspo to avoid increasing risk levels and for it to achieve its full potential. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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