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Awardit: Q1 on the softer side - ABG

Q1 sales -15% vs. ABG, EBITA margin 3% vs. ABG 12%
Consensus estimates to come down
Conference call at 10:00 CET

Q1 details
Sales of SEK 167m (-15% vs. ABGSCe SEK 196m), corresponding to 169% growth y-o-y, where of 40% organic. Acquired units contributed with less than expected to sales. The company points out that seasonal effects in MBXP had a negative impact. Prämie was also negatively impacted by weaker market conditions in Germany with customers in the energy sector stopping their loyalty programs temporarily, removing SEK 15m of revenues in the quarter. Profitability for both Prämie and MBXP was negative in Q1, owing to seasonal effects, weaker markets, and higher energy costs. Management guides that Prämie could be back to previously forecasted levels in Q3 or Q4 this year. Reported EBITA was SEK 5.0m (-80% vs. ABGSCe SEK 24.4m). EBIT of SEK -3.9m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 13.9m). On the positive side, Zupergift grew sales by 128% y-o-y.

Estimate changes
We believe that consensus numbers will be downgraded on the back of lower-than-expected performance in the acquired units. The decrease in EBITA should be notable in percentage terms, around mid-teens on.

Final thoughts
As a final though, this report was on the softer side, and we believe there should be a negative reaction on the day. The share is down 33% YTD and trades at 13x 2023 EV/EBITA (pre Q1) with a strong track record of 30% EBITA per share CAGR since the IPO. The CEO Erik Grohman will host a presentation of the report at 10:00 CET, on Teams. You can find the link to the presentation on this website:
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